Sheffield United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 69¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 30

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

-$155.97

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 68.5¢

+32% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares24,340

Combined PnL-$421.59

Over7 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares16,003

Combined PnL+$265.62

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 51.8¢	$12.2K	$11.8K	-$428.68	53% 1128-987 (2115)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 48¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$140	47% 2471-2781 (5252)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 58.8¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$54.77	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.8¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$264.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$1.1K	$793.12	-$319.53
us391CTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$47.82	51% 1672-1622 (3294)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$93	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$406	$400	-$6	55% 7059-5661 (12720)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$216	$218	+$2
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$190	$182	-$8
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Underavg 50¢	$324.67	$324.67	+$0	55% 1727-1417 (3144)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$459.11	$311.5	-$38.63	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$243.35	$179.94	-$66.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.7¢	$103.35	$131.57	+$28.1
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$284.82	$263.07	-$21.75	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$197.63	$203.91	+$6.28	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
RN1<$100	Underavg 60.5¢	$49.17	$54.01	+$4.84	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$53.28	$48.29	-$2.78	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$35	$38.04	+$3.04	58% 5831-4282 (10113)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 64.4¢	$36.61	$37.81	+$1.21	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 53¢	$12.61	$13.08	+$0.48	59% 9948-6921 (16869)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 59.7¢	$6.27	$6.98	+$0.71	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 65¢	$6.5	$6.35	-$0.15	51% 1405-1351 (2756)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 55¢	$3.09	$3.09	+$0	38% 3213-5245 (8458)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$12,179.93

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$428.68

Record

53%

1128-987 (2115)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$3,360

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$140

Record

47%

2471-2781 (5252)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,142.95

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$54.77

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

Under$2,030.358.8¢+$264.76

Over$1,112.6547¢-$319.53

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$1,967.07

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$47.82

Record

51%

1672-1622 (3294)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$1,807

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$93

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$406

Value

$400

PnL

-$6

Record

55%

7059-5661 (12720)

Both legs:

Invested

$324.67

Value

$324.67

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1727-1417 (3144)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$459.11

Value

$311.5

PnL

-$38.63

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

Both legs:

Over$243.3548¢-$66.72

Under$103.3550.7¢+$28.1

CannaeCTR

Over

Invested

$284.82

Value

$263.07

PnL

-$21.75

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$197.63

Value

$203.91

PnL

+$6.28

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$49.17

Value

$54.01

PnL

+$4.84

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.28

Value

$48.29

PnL

-$2.78

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35

Value

$38.04

PnL

+$3.04

Record

58%

5831-4282 (10113)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$36.61

Value

$37.81

PnL

+$1.21

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$12.61

Value

$13.08

PnL

+$0.48

Record

59%

9948-6921 (16869)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$0.71

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

1405-1351 (2756)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.