Sheffield United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$5.5
71.2¢ → 60¢
-16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD Oddstorm | Overavg 73¢ | $483.26 | $470.02 | -$13.24 | 38% 378-620 (998) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 35.6¢ | $297.64 | $334.85 | +$37.2 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 27.9¢ | $259.26 | $327.47 | +$68.21 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 27.9¢ | $165.93 | $234.9 | +$68.97 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61¢ | $93.33 | $92.57 | -$0.77 | |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 74¢ | $148 | $142 | -$6 | 55% 7059-5661 (12720) |
FO foooool | Overavg 61.4¢ | $133.48 | $131.59 | -$1.89 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 74.6¢ | $94.69 | $90.17 | -$4.52 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.18 | -$0.08 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 74¢ | $444.6 | $2.5 | -$5.93 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $2.19 | $2.14 | -$0.05 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
Invested
$483.26
Value
$470.02
PnL
-$13.24
Record
38%
378-620 (998)
Invested
$297.64
Value
$334.85
PnL
+$37.2
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$259.26
Value
$327.47
PnL
+$68.21
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$148
Value
$142
PnL
-$6
Record
55%
7059-5661 (12720)
Invested
$133.48
Value
$131.59
PnL
-$1.89
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$94.69
Value
$90.17
PnL
-$4.52
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.18
PnL
-$0.08
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
VeryLucky888Invested
$444.6
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$5.93
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.14
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.