Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-10-30?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 54¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$20.41

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,598

Combined PnL-$24.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$119.15

Total Shares220

Combined PnL+$4.44

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech	Noavg 53¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$28.96	63% 8104-4849 (12953)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$996.34	$973.67	-$22.67	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47¢	$706.41	$698.9	-$7.51
└ No leg	Noavg 56.4¢	$289.93	$274.78	-$15.15
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$361.53	$332.98	+$2.65	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.8¢	$209.3	$212	+$2.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.8¢	$121.81	$120.99	-$0.05
CA Cannae	Noavg 57¢	$180.72	$182.32	+$1.59	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.9¢	$79.15	$83.24	+$4.1	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 57.7¢	$79.87	$78.25	-$0.23	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 53¢	$70.41	$71.08	+$0.66	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 51¢	$51	$53.5	+$2.5	38% 3213-5245 (8458)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$31.57	$32.34	+$0.39	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 58¢	$11.02	$10.17	-$0.85	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 56¢	$4.68	$4.98	+$0.3	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$3.61	$3.56	-$0.05	67% 23277-11683 (34960)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.05	+$0.15	54% 6195-5245 (11440)

torta.tech

Invested

$3,117.54

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$28.96

Record

63%

8104-4849 (12953)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$996.34

Value

$973.67

PnL

-$22.67

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

Both legs:

Yes$706.4147¢-$7.51

No$289.9356.4¢-$15.15

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$361.53

Value

$332.98

PnL

+$2.65

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

Both legs:

No$209.352.8¢+$2.7

Yes$121.8146.8¢-$0.05

Cannae

Invested

$180.72

Value

$182.32

PnL

+$1.59

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.15

Value

$83.24

PnL

+$4.1

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$79.87

Value

$78.25

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

foooool<$100

Invested

$70.41

Value

$71.08

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.57

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$11.02

Value

$10.17

PnL

-$0.85

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.68

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$0.05

Record

67%

23277-11683 (34960)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

6195-5245 (11440)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.