Sheffield United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to Score
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 59¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
$419.77
48.3¢ → 58.5¢
+21% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 44.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.7K | +$371.78 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.1 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
 RN1 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $737.28 | $746.26 | +$8.98 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 55¢ | $330 | $327 | -$3 | 55% 7059-5661 (12720) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $222.96 | $223.04 | +$0.08 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47¢ | $111.93 | $134.43 | +$22.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.5¢ | $111.03 | $88.61 | -$22.42 | |
FO foooool | Noavg 49.4¢ | $183.57 | $209.86 | +$26.29 | 50% 10770-10596 (21366) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 43.3¢ | $32.06 | $35.89 | +$3.83 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 45.6¢ | $15.97 | $17.69 | +$1.72 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $1.88 | $1.97 | +$0.08 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
Invested
$1,356.87
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$371.78
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$1,061.96
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.1
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
RN1Invested
$737.28
Value
$746.26
PnL
+$8.98
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$330
Value
$327
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
7059-5661 (12720)
Invested
$222.96
Value
$223.04
PnL
+$0.08
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
Both legs:
Invested
$183.57
Value
$209.86
PnL
+$26.29
Record
50%
10770-10596 (21366)
Invested
$32.06
Value
$35.89
PnL
+$3.83
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$15.97
Value
$17.69
PnL
+$1.72
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$1.97
PnL
+$0.08
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.