Portsmouth FC vs. Stoke City FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 51¢ · $572 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$571.85
-$0.75
51¢ → 51¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 51¢ | $433.14 | $433.14 | -$0 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51¢ | $113.82 | $103.32 | +$0.14 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 49.7¢ | $14.57 | $9.82 | -$4.75 | 56% 8223-6528 (14751) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $7.45 | $9.45 | +$2 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $5.39 | $7.15 | +$1.76 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $6.42 | $6.42 | -$0 | 55% 1426-1175 (2601) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.55 | +$0.1 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$433.14
Value
$433.14
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
VeryLucky888Invested
$113.82
Value
$103.32
PnL
+$0.14
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$14.57
Value
$9.82
PnL
-$4.75
Record
56%
8223-6528 (14751)
Invested
$7.45
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$2
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$1.76
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$6.42
Value
$6.42
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
1426-1175 (2601)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.