Will Watford FC win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$381.04

Smart Money Entry

32.6¢ → 55¢

+69% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,494

Combined PnL-$163.93

Yes5 traders

Total Value$597.39

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL-$217.11

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 64.2¢	$1.2K	$945.12	-$206.9	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.2¢	$911.32	$688.7	-$222.62
└ No leg	Noavg 48.3¢	$240.7	$256.42	+$15.72
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 28.7¢	$750.01	$718.92	-$31.09	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 69.2¢	$747.86	$524.25	-$223.62	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
RN1	Noavg 30.6¢	$600.16	$479.99	-$120.17	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 42¢	$309.12	$316.48	+$7.36	60% 3351-2260 (5611)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$53.83	$58.21	+$4.38	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 85¢	$42.5	$39.25	-$3.25	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 85¢	$41.65	$38.47	-$3.18	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 64¢	$49.8	$35.74	-$14.06	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 38.4¢	$24.2	$25.12	+$0.92	67% 23332-11736 (35068)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$7.85	-$0.45	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$5.84	$5.78	-$0.06	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$4.02	$5.41	+$1.38	51% 6003-5696 (11699)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.75	+$0.8	58% 18650-13710 (32360)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,152.02

Value

$945.12

PnL

-$206.9

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

Both legs:

Yes$911.3264.2¢-$222.62

No$240.748.3¢+$15.72

UpTheBlues

Invested

$750.01

Value

$718.92

PnL

-$31.09

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$747.86

Value

$524.25

PnL

-$223.62

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

RN1

Invested

$600.16

Value

$479.99

PnL

-$120.17

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

shiifoo

Invested

$309.12

Value

$316.48

PnL

+$7.36

Record

60%

3351-2260 (5611)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.83

Value

$58.21

PnL

+$4.38

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$39.25

PnL

-$3.25

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$41.65

Value

$38.47

PnL

-$3.18

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

foooool<$100

Invested

$49.8

Value

$35.74

PnL

-$14.06

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$24.2

Value

$25.12

PnL

+$0.92

Record

67%

23332-11736 (35068)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.84

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$1.38

Record

51%

6003-5696 (11699)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.8

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.