Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 35¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$6.2K
$7.64
35.8¢ → 34.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008CTR | Noavg 35.9¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$11.04 | 49% 236-246 (482) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 65¢ | $501 | $493.29 | -$7.71 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 34¢ | $293.4 | $297.71 | +$4.31 | 53% 15944-14125 (30069) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $65.28 | $65.28 | +$0 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
Invested
$5,377.43
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$11.04
Record
49%
236-246 (482)
Invested
$501
Value
$493.29
PnL
-$7.71
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$293.4
Value
$297.71
PnL
+$4.31
Record
53%
15944-14125 (30069)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$65.28
Value
$65.28
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.