Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 2.0¢ · $964 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
12
No 33%
$964.26
-$21.78
36.1¢ → 2¢
-94% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $812.11 | $822.01 | +$9.9 | 51% 1683-1647 (3330) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $51.94 | $51.67 | -$0.27 | 53% 725-641 (1366) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 95.9¢ | $38.77 | $39.93 | +$1.17 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $8.75 | $10.63 | +$1.88 | 51% 6007-5697 (11704) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $4.91 | $7.5 | +$2.59 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 98.3¢ | $8.76 | $7.23 | -$1.53 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $9.32 | $7.05 | -$0.07 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $5.18 | $5.14 | -$0.04 | 53% 2174-1925 (4099) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $4.1 | $5.13 | +$1.03 | 59% 10176-7169 (17345) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.55 | +$0.25 | 54% 6279-5320 (11599) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $35 | $3 | -$32 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.6¢ | $5.11 | $0.43 | -$4.68 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
us391CTRInvested
$812.11
Value
$822.01
PnL
+$9.9
Record
51%
1683-1647 (3330)
Invested
$51.94
Value
$51.67
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
725-641 (1366)
Invested
$38.77
Value
$39.93
PnL
+$1.17
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$8.75
Value
$10.63
PnL
+$1.88
Record
51%
6007-5697 (11704)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$2.59
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$8.76
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$1.53
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.32
Value
$7.05
PnL
-$0.07
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
2174-1925 (4099)
poshposh<$100Invested
$4.1
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$1.03
Record
59%
10176-7169 (17345)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.55
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
6279-5320 (11599)
Invested
$35
Value
$3
PnL
-$32
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.11
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$4.68
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.