Will Derby County FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.4K
$258.62
88.4¢ → 99.3¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87.7¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$229.56 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $236.34 | $262.6 | +$26.26 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $57.42 | $57.68 | +$0.26 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $52.3 | $51.95 | -$0.35 | 53% 725-641 (1366) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $17.71 | $15.07 | -$2.64 | 76% 4051-1277 (5328) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.12 | $9.45 | +$0.33 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.8 | $8 | +$5.2 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
Invested
$1,768.43
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$229.56
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
RN1CTRInvested
$236.34
Value
$262.6
PnL
+$26.26
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$57.42
Value
$57.68
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$52.3
Value
$51.95
PnL
-$0.35
Record
53%
725-641 (1366)
Invested
$17.71
Value
$15.07
PnL
-$2.64
Record
76%
4051-1277 (5328)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$0.33
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$8
PnL
+$5.2
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.