Middlesbrough FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.5K
-$427.75
86.9¢ → 94.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 88.9¢ | $745.89 | $767.69 | +$21.79 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 86¢ | $523.72 | $304.49 | -$219.23 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 85¢ | $510 | $288.5 | -$201.95 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $85.69 | $66.37 | -$19.32 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $41.65 | $24.5 | -$17.15 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $3.15 | $11.25 | +$8.1 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$745.89
Value
$767.69
PnL
+$21.79
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
0xheavy888Invested
$523.72
Value
$304.49
PnL
-$219.23
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
VeryLucky888Invested
$510
Value
$288.5
PnL
-$201.95
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$85.69
Value
$66.37
PnL
-$19.32
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$41.65
Value
$24.5
PnL
-$17.15
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$8.1
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.