Middlesbrough FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 51¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 31

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

$174.38

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$12.6K

Total Shares24,595

Combined PnL+$98.97

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares11,150

Combined PnL+$75.41

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 51¢	$12.1K	$12.3K	+$119.08	48% 147-160 (307)
us391CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$38.42	51% 1683-1647 (3330)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$43.94	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$298	$300	+$2	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$196	$200	+$4
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$102	$100	-$2
KY Kyn008	Underavg 50¢	$295.43	$295.43	+$0	49% 238-250 (488)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$350.03	$254.52	-$40.61	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$154.89	$157.49	+$2.6	50% 3870-3825 (7695)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$93.37	$74.03	-$19.34	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$39.69	$40.91	+$1.22	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 49.6¢	$7.79	$7.99	-$0.78	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.15	-$0.15	74% 1592-569 (2161)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.27	$1.27	-$0	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$12,146.53

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$119.08

Record

48%

147-160 (307)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$1,882.48

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$38.42

Record

51%

1683-1647 (3330)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$1,638.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$43.94

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$298

Value

$300

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

Both legs:

Invested

$295.43

Value

$295.43

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

238-250 (488)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$350.03

Value

$254.52

PnL

-$40.61

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Over

Invested

$154.89

Value

$157.49

PnL

+$2.6

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$93.37

Value

$74.03

PnL

-$19.34

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.69

Value

$40.91

PnL

+$1.22

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.99

PnL

-$0.78

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.