Middlesbrough FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 2.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 67%
$1.2K
-$197.1
78.3¢ → 81¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 88¢ | $667.92 | $618.58 | -$49.34 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 69.7¢ | $418 | $306 | -$112 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $91.42 | $102.85 | +$11.43 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 70.4¢ | $131.57 | $95.37 | -$36.2 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $42.09 | $31.11 | -$10.98 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $3.4 | +$0.1 | 74% 1592-569 (2161) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.15 | -$0.1 | 76% 4051-1277 (5328) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $1.29 | $2.1 | +$0.81 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $0.63 | -$0.83 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$667.92
Value
$618.58
PnL
-$49.34
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
0xheavy888Invested
$418
Value
$306
PnL
-$112
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$91.42
Value
$102.85
PnL
+$11.43
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$131.57
Value
$95.37
PnL
-$36.2
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$42.09
Value
$31.11
PnL
-$10.98
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
74%
1592-569 (2161)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.1
Record
76%
4051-1277 (5328)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.29
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.81
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.45
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$0.83
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.