Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Charlton Athletic FC, while the market favors Middlesbrough FC (85%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Charlton Athletic FC (40%) · Charlton Athletic FC at 15¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Charlton Athletic FC
5
Charlton Athletic FC 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$17.19
29¢ → 15¢
-48% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCharlton Athletic FC at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Middlesbrough FC 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Charlton Athletic FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Charlton Athletic FCavg 37.5¢ | $2.4K | $1.9K | -$473.72 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
| └ Middlesbrough FC leg | Middlesbrough FCavg 84.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$8.03 | |
| └ Charlton Athletic FC leg | Charlton Athletic FCavg 37.5¢ | $1.4K | $578.38 | -$481.75 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Charlton Athletic FCavg 22.8¢ | $165.87 | $109.27 | -$56.6 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
CA CannaeCTR | Charlton Athletic FCavg 37.4¢ | $80.37 | $81.06 | +$0.69 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Middlesbrough FCavg 57¢ | $93.05 | $69.79 | +$16.75 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Middlesbrough FCavg 59¢ | $49.56 | $65.52 | +$15.96 | 50% 3872-3828 (7700) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Middlesbrough FCavg 58¢ | $17.4 | $23.4 | +$6 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$2,420.76
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$473.72
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Both legs:
Invested
$165.87
Value
$109.27
PnL
-$56.6
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$80.37
Value
$81.06
PnL
+$0.69
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$93.05
Value
$69.79
PnL
+$16.75
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$49.56
Value
$65.52
PnL
+$15.96
Record
50%
3872-3828 (7700)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.4
Value
$23.4
PnL
+$6
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.