Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-10-31?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $703 held · ended Oct 31

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$702.52

Combined PnL

-$110.51

Smart Money Entry

86.2¢ → 97.9¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$634.15

Total Shares636

Combined PnL-$87.31

No7 traders

Total Value$68.37

Total Shares1,123

Combined PnL-$23.19

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 85.5¢	$605.67	$525.35	-$80.32	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 96.9¢	$49.52	$49.92	+$0.4	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$38	$39	+$1	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$25.08	$19.28	-$5.8	53% 15955-14130 (30085)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 89.5¢	$17.9	$18	+$0.1	58% 18658-13715 (32373)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 2.3¢	$15.61	$15.35	-$0.26	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 91.5¢	$9.93	$9.38	-$0.55	54% 6279-5320 (11599)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 11.8¢	$12.11	$7.68	-$4.43	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 77.2¢	$6.11	$6.5	+$0.39	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$7.25	$5.72	-$1.53	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$21.09	$2.61	-$18.48	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.93	+$0.78	62% 1149-698 (1847)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$3.1	$1.38	-$1.72	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.43	-$0.07	54% 56601-48769 (105370)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$605.67

Value

$525.35

PnL

-$80.32

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.52

Value

$49.92

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$39

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.08

Value

$19.28

PnL

-$5.8

Record

53%

15955-14130 (30085)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.9

Value

$18

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

18658-13715 (32373)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$15.61

Value

$15.35

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.93

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

6279-5320 (11599)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$7.68

PnL

-$4.43

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$1.53

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$21.09

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$18.48

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.78

Record

62%

1149-698 (1847)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$1.72

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.