Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$9.6K
-$118.32
98.6¢ → 99.6¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $7.9K | $7.9K | -$16 | 93% 855-61 (916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$71.39 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 RN1 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $167.53 | $169.35 | +$1.82 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $84.33 | $82.65 | -$1.68 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $65.37 | $57.99 | -$7.38 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $60.97 | $26.13 | -$34.84 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $4 | $14 | +$10 | 54% 6279-5320 (11599) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.6 | $1.75 | +$1.15 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
Invested
$7,888
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$16
Record
93%
855-61 (916)
Invested
$1,433.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$71.39
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
RN1Invested
$167.53
Value
$169.35
PnL
+$1.82
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$84.33
Value
$82.65
PnL
-$1.68
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$65.37
Value
$57.99
PnL
-$7.38
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$60.97
Value
$26.13
PnL
-$34.84
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$4
Value
$14
PnL
+$10
Record
54%
6279-5320 (11599)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$1.15
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.