Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Middlesbrough FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 48¢ · $614 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$613.73
$20.26
46.4¢ → 48¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $273.48 | $273.48 | -$0 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
NO NotradecopyCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $172.41 | $188.08 | +$15.67 | 49% 3921-4114 (8035) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 46.6¢ | $145.27 | $149.76 | +$4.49 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.4 | +$0.1 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
Invested
$273.48
Value
$273.48
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
Invested
$172.41
Value
$188.08
PnL
+$15.67
Record
49%
3921-4114 (8035)
Invested
$145.27
Value
$149.76
PnL
+$4.49
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.