Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Lincoln City FC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 42¢ · $438 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$438.22
-$16.48
50¢ → 41.5¢
-17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $131.64 | $142.64 | +$11.01 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.4¢ | $99.48 | $107.35 | +$7.87 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 39.6¢ | $32.16 | $35.29 | +$3.14 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 50.2¢ | $161.67 | $140.02 | -$21.65 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 50¢ | $200 | $103 | +$3 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.8¢ | $32.95 | $33.75 | +$0.8 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
 us391<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $17.43 | $18.8 | +$1.37 | 51% 1683-1646 (3329) |
Invested
$131.64
Value
$142.64
PnL
+$11.01
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Both legs:
Invested
$161.67
Value
$140.02
PnL
-$21.65
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
0xheavy888Invested
$200
Value
$103
PnL
+$3
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$32.95
Value
$33.75
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
us391<$100Invested
$17.43
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$1.37
Record
51%
1683-1646 (3329)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.