Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$11.84
57.1¢ → 58.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 57¢ | $642.82 | $658.49 | +$15.66 | 50% 25095-24835 (49930) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 57.7¢ | $397.38 | $393.09 | -$4.29 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 56.5¢ | $224.46 | $226.46 | +$2 | 54% 4883-4114 (8997) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $179.65 | $182.37 | +$2.72 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $139.42 | $144.46 | +$3.36 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58¢ | $38.55 | $37.91 | -$0.64 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $97.8 | $98.99 | +$1.19 | 54% 56596-48765 (105361) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $38.62 | $37.88 | -$0.74 | 53% 2174-1925 (4099) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $36.98 | $35.26 | -$1.72 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $22.03 | $20.07 | -$0.24 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $1.74 | $1.71 | -$0.03 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Invested
$642.82
Value
$658.49
PnL
+$15.66
Record
50%
25095-24835 (49930)
Invested
$397.38
Value
$393.09
PnL
-$4.29
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
Invested
$224.46
Value
$226.46
PnL
+$2
Record
54%
4883-4114 (8997)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$179.65
Value
$182.37
PnL
+$2.72
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$97.8
Value
$98.99
PnL
+$1.19
Record
54%
56596-48765 (105361)
Invested
$38.62
Value
$37.88
PnL
-$0.74
Record
53%
2174-1925 (4099)
Invested
$36.98
Value
$35.26
PnL
-$1.72
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$22.03
Value
$20.07
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.71
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.