Burnley FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$284.36

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 86¢

+69% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,812

Combined PnL+$286.03

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.59

Total Shares9

Combined PnL-$1.67

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Underavg 51¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$119.98	51% 1683-1647 (3330)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.3¢	$534.69	$904.36	+$369.66	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
CA Cannae	Underavg 50¢	$210.52	$202.09	-$6.32	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 54.1¢	$61.67	$96.9	+$35.23	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
0xheavy888	Underavg 52¢	$106.42	$64.92	+$9.58	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50¢	$53.5	$51.36	-$2.14	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.96	$1.84	-$0.12	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$0.75	-$1.55	74% 1592-569 (2161)

us391

Under

Invested

$2,039.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$119.98

Record

51%

1683-1647 (3330)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$534.69

Value

$904.36

PnL

+$369.66

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$210.52

Value

$202.09

PnL

-$6.32

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$61.67

Value

$96.9

PnL

+$35.23

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$106.42

Value

$64.92

PnL

+$9.58

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$53.5

Value

$51.36

PnL

-$2.14

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$1.55

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.