Will Burnley FC win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 57¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$319.07

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 57¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,779

Combined PnL+$319.37

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.2

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.3

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO torta.tech	Noavg 53.3¢	$5.2K	$5.5K	+$259.3	63% 8134-4874 (13008)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 46.8¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$48.42	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.8¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$141
└ No leg	Noavg 51.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$92.58
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 50¢	$317.35	$354.9	+$37.55	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$270.25	$286.35	+$16.1	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
└ No leg	Noavg 50.2¢	$155.74	$173.6	+$17.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.7¢	$114.51	$112.75	-$1.76
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 49¢	$129.67	$148.19	+$18.52	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 59¢	$80.45	$77.48	-$2.97	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$41.3	$39.2	-$2.1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$39.15	$38.28	-$0.87
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$60.39	$64.18	+$3.79	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$56.98	$56.84	-$0.01	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.1¢	$30.74	$29.64	-$1.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.4¢	$26.24	$27.2	+$1.89
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$13.5	$13.2	-$0.3	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 56¢	$8.54	$8.54	+$0	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.8	+$0.2	54% 6286-5324 (11610)

torta.tech

Invested

$5,207.42

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$259.3

Record

63%

8134-4874 (13008)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,452.66

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$48.42

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Both legs:

Yes$2,347.3846.8¢-$141

No$1,105.2851.7¢+$92.58

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$317.35

Value

$354.9

PnL

+$37.55

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$270.25

Value

$286.35

PnL

+$16.1

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Both legs:

No$155.7450.2¢+$17.86

Yes$114.5144.7¢-$1.76

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$129.67

Value

$148.19

PnL

+$18.52

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$80.45

Value

$77.48

PnL

-$2.97

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Both legs:

No$41.359¢-$2.1

Yes$39.1545¢-$0.87

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$60.39

Value

$64.18

PnL

+$3.79

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$56.98

Value

$56.84

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

Both legs:

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$0.3

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.54

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.