Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$51.54

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 66.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,580

Combined PnL-$26.65

Yes3 traders

Total Value$845.72

Total Shares2,642

Combined PnL-$24.88

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 68.1¢	$996.83	$980.65	-$16.18	53% 2695-2376 (5071)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$833.2	$807.95	-$25.25	49% 299-311 (610)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 68.1¢	$656.39	$645.74	-$10.65	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 66¢	$55.78	$56.41	+$0.63	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 67¢	$33.58	$33.33	-$0.25	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$31.11	$31.11	+$0.49	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 67¢	$13.4	$13.3	-$0.1	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 67¢	$13.31	$13.21	-$0.1	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$6.78	$6.66	-$0.12	48% 1767-1905 (3672)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$996.83

Value

$980.65

PnL

-$16.18

Record

53%

2695-2376 (5071)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$833.2

Value

$807.95

PnL

-$25.25

Record

49%

299-311 (610)

LightParadox

Invested

$656.39

Value

$645.74

PnL

-$10.65

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$55.78

Value

$56.41

PnL

+$0.63

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$33.58

Value

$33.33

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.11

Value

$31.11

PnL

+$0.49

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$13.4

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$13.31

Value

$13.21

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.78

Value

$6.66

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.