Will Bristol City FC vs. Lincoln City FC end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$445.26
87¢ → 72.5¢
-17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $686.13 | $626.15 | -$52.24 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LI Lilybaeum | Noavg 94.4¢ | $699.18 | $509.02 | +$511.94 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 75.8¢ | $346.35 | $325.28 | -$14.16 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $218.72 | $201.47 | -$17.25 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $167.28 | $155.43 | -$11.85 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81¢ | $51.44 | $46.04 | -$5.4 | |
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.71 | $7.77 | +$0.05 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $1.71 | $1.38 | -$0.33 | 57% 19479-14427 (33906) |
RN1CTRInvested
$686.13
Value
$626.15
PnL
-$52.24
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$699.18
Value
$509.02
PnL
+$511.94
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
Invested
$346.35
Value
$325.28
PnL
-$14.16
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$218.72
Value
$201.47
PnL
-$17.25
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Both legs:
Invested
$7.71
Value
$7.77
PnL
+$0.05
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$1.71
Value
$1.38
PnL
-$0.33
Record
57%
19479-14427 (33906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.