Bolton Wanderers FC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$122.58

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 76¢

-9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$816.28

Total Shares1,442

Combined PnL-$442.3

Under5 traders

Total Value$637.42

Total Shares1,328

Combined PnL+$319.73

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 80¢	$955.44	$653.76	-$301.68	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 20¢	$216.41	$519.29	+$302.88	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 98¢	$200	$106.12	-$93.88	77% 3315-1006 (4321)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$76.48	$79.8	+$2.49	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 98¢	$99.6	$52.85	-$46.75	63% 1114-643 (1757)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 18.9¢	$9.25	$23.52	+$14.27	47% 4570-5078 (9648)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$13.89	$14.19	-$0.44	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
RN1<$100	Overavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.55	+$0	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.09	$0.62	+$0.53	59% 10191-7178 (17369)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$955.44

Value

$653.76

PnL

-$301.68

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$216.41

Value

$519.29

PnL

+$302.88

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$106.12

PnL

-$93.88

Record

77%

3315-1006 (4321)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.48

Value

$79.8

PnL

+$2.49

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$99.6

Value

$52.85

PnL

-$46.75

Record

63%

1114-643 (1757)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.25

Value

$23.52

PnL

+$14.27

Record

47%

4570-5078 (9648)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.89

Value

$14.19

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.53

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.