Will Bolton Wanderers FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 70¢ · $329 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$329.17
-$9.5
72.8¢ → 70¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 76¢ | $146.49 | $141.67 | -$4.82 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $65.74 | $69.32 | +$3.58 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $66.05 | $57.72 | -$8.33 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $25.76 | $26.56 | +$0.8 | 50% 3872-3828 (7700) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $21.62 | $21.59 | -$0.04 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $4.8 | $5.2 | +$0.4 | 58% 18665-13716 (32381) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $4.45 | $3.83 | -$0.63 | 54% 6286-5324 (11610) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.28 | -$0.47 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
Invested
$146.49
Value
$141.67
PnL
-$4.82
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$65.74
Value
$69.32
PnL
+$3.58
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
Invested
$66.05
Value
$57.72
PnL
-$8.33
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$25.76
Value
$26.56
PnL
+$0.8
Record
50%
3872-3828 (7700)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$21.62
Value
$21.59
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.4
Record
58%
18665-13716 (32381)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$3.83
PnL
-$0.63
Record
54%
6286-5324 (11610)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$0.47
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.