Will Walsall FC vs. Barnet FC end in a draw?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$2.6K
$351.67
82.5¢ → 98.7¢
+20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Yesavg 85.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$326.69 | 99% 12875-103 (12978) |
BI Bigggggggg | Yesavg 48¢ | $92.13 | $189.5 | +$93.73 | 32% 3310-7182 (10492) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Yes | $83.9 | $83.9 | +$55.39 | 36% 1169-2114 (3283) |
BU Burkilota1CTR | Noavg 15.9¢ | $135.18 | $11.03 | -$124.15 | 62% 781-473 (1254) |
Invested
$2,010.46
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$326.69
Record
99%
12875-103 (12978)
Invested
$92.13
Value
$189.5
PnL
+$93.73
Record
32%
3310-7182 (10492)
Invested
$83.9
Value
$83.9
PnL
+$55.39
Record
36%
1169-2114 (3283)
Invested
$135.18
Value
$11.03
PnL
-$124.15
Record
62%
781-473 (1254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.