Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Shrewsbury Town FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 14¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$15.99

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 14¢

-71% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,351

Combined PnL+$200.92

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,696

Combined PnL-$184.93

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 70.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$168.42	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Yesavg 48.8¢	$1.0K	$984.2	-$26.1	55% 1743-1435 (3178)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$780.6	$621.29	-$159.31	53% 1134-991 (2125)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 48.4¢	$147.99	$119.08	-$28.91	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$53.55	$84.96	+$31.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.4¢	$94.44	$34.13	-$60.32
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 68.7¢	$93.67	$113.2	+$19.52	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 51¢	$53.55	$64.05	+$10.5	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 76¢	$22.61	$23.5	+$0.89	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Noavg 70¢	$8.9	$10.49	+$1.59	93% 2992-242 (3234)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$9.11	$9.58	+$0.47	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,464.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$168.42

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,010.3

Value

$984.2

PnL

-$26.1

Record

55%

1743-1435 (3178)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$780.6

Value

$621.29

PnL

-$159.31

Record

53%

1134-991 (2125)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$147.99

Value

$119.08

PnL

-$28.91

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

Both legs:

No$53.5552¢+$31.41

Yes$94.4448.4¢-$60.32

UpTheBlues

Invested

$93.67

Value

$113.2

PnL

+$19.52

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$53.55

Value

$64.05

PnL

+$10.5

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$22.61

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$0.89

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

thatsabing0<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$10.49

PnL

+$1.59

Record

93%

2992-242 (3234)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.11

Value

$9.58

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.