Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Salford City FC, while the market favors Exeter City FC (60%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Salford City FC (-1.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Salford City FC (25%) · Salford City FC at 40¢ · $757 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Salford City FC
4
Salford City FC 25%
$756.51
-$4.9
Research grade
NeutralSalford City FC at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Exeter City FC 60%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saber-greedCTR | Salford City FCavg 39.8¢ | $501.46 | $504.06 | +$2.6 | 59% 2554-1781 (4335) |
 VeryLucky888 | Exeter City FCavg 64¢ | $192 | $180 | -$6 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Exeter City FCavg 61.3¢ | $72.9 | $71.4 | -$1.5 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Exeter City FCavg 60¢ | $1.05 | $1.05 | +$0 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
Invested
$501.46
Value
$504.06
PnL
+$2.6
Record
59%
2554-1781 (4335)
VeryLucky888Invested
$192
Value
$180
PnL
-$6
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
Invested
$72.9
Value
$71.4
PnL
-$1.5
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.