Rotherham United FC vs. Crawley Town FC: Neither team to score first?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 97¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$9.7K
$8.7K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.0K | $9.7K | +$8.7K | — |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $0.33 | $0.22 | -$0.11 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Noavg 3.6¢ | $0.25 | $0.19 | -$0.06 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$9.7K
PnL
+$8.7K
Record
—
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$0.11
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$0.06
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.