Will Oldham Athletic AFC win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 98.5¢

+79% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,412

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,640

Combined PnL-$43.87

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 57.3¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	+$1.1K	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 56.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$43.89	53% 1134-991 (2125)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 42.7¢	$251.91	$522.14	+$270.23	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 43¢	$36.12	$82.32	+$46.2	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 91¢	$44.59	$32.1	-$12.5	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
RO Rocky31<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.58	-$0.02	74% 1592-569 (2161)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Noavg 41¢	$3.47	$3.81	+$0.34	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.45	-$0	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.33	$0.35	+$0.02	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,534.77

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,491.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$43.89

Record

53%

1134-991 (2125)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$251.91

Value

$522.14

PnL

+$270.23

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$36.12

Value

$82.32

PnL

+$46.2

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$44.59

Value

$32.1

PnL

-$12.5

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

Rocky31<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.02

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.