Will Chesterfield FC win on 2026-10-30?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 30

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$148.93

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 97.5¢

+86% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,355

Combined PnL+$2.48

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,793

Combined PnL-$151.42

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Noavg 47.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0.53	45% 304-376 (680)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$10	47% 2471-2781 (5252)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.5¢	$535.74	$541.37	+$5.63	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Yesavg 56¢	$499.99	$455.35	-$44.64	59% 2553-1775 (4328)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 52.5¢	$231.62	$232.33	+$0.7	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 53.1¢	$519.23	$179.72	-$339.51	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.1¢	$458.77	$94.97	-$363.8
└ No leg	Noavg 63.5¢	$60.46	$84.75	+$24.29
NO NotradecopyCTR	Yesavg 51¢	$147.47	$31.81	-$115.66	49% 3917-4112 (8029)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	Noavg 51¢	$26.18	$24.38	-$3.85	55% 1727-1417 (3144)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 53.4¢	$21.11	$19.47	-$1.64	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$18.05	$17.88	-$0.17	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.37	+$0.17	52% 4016-3659 (7675)

metski29

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0.53

Record

45%

304-376 (680)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

2471-2781 (5252)

SnakeBall

Invested

$535.74

Value

$541.37

PnL

+$5.63

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

Saber-greedCTR

Yes

Invested

$499.99

Value

$455.35

PnL

-$44.64

Record

59%

2553-1775 (4328)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$231.62

Value

$232.33

PnL

+$0.7

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$519.23

Value

$179.72

PnL

-$339.51

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

Yes$458.7753.1¢-$363.8

No$60.4663.5¢+$24.29

NotradecopyCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.47

Value

$31.81

PnL

-$115.66

Record

49%

3917-4112 (8029)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

Invested

$26.18

Value

$24.38

PnL

-$3.85

Record

55%

1727-1417 (3144)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.11

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$1.64

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.05

Value

$17.88

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.