Will Wycombe Wanderers FC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$117.21

Combined PnL

-$4.22

Smart Money Entry

93.4¢ → 99.3¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$113.18

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$6.37

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.39

Total Shares414

Combined PnL-$10.59

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93¢	$66.03	$70.22	+$4.19	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$24.78	$26.01	+$1.23	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$16.18	$6.96	+$0.36	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$18.86	$5.01	+$0.3	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$18.82	$4.98	+$0.3	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$8.47	$2.64	-$5.83	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.39	$0.6	+$1.26	51% 364-346 (710)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$6.17	$0.15	-$6.02	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$66.03

Value

$70.22

PnL

+$4.19

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$24.78

Value

$26.01

PnL

+$1.23

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$16.18

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.36

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.86

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$18.82

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.47

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$5.83

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.39

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$1.26

Record

51%

364-346 (710)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.17

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$6.02

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.