Will Wycombe Wanderers FC vs. Huddersfield Town AFC end in a draw?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 97¢ · $356 held · ends Nov 14

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$355.87

Combined PnL

$238.43

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$348.8

Total Shares356

Combined PnL+$242.72

No2 traders

Total Value$7.07

Total Shares276

Combined PnL-$4.29

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WH whosay	Yesavg 29.8¢	$106.07	$348.8	+$242.72	57% 1299-970 (2269)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 6.5¢	$45.98	$4.15	-$2.54	27% 3479-9254 (12733)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 3.2¢	$4.67	$2.92	-$1.75	43% 5533-7231 (12764)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$106.07

Value

$348.8

PnL

+$242.72

Record

57%

1299-970 (2269)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$45.98

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$2.54

Record

27%

3479-9254 (12733)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$1.75

Record

43%

5533-7231 (12764)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.