Will Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 61¢ · $74K held · ended Oct 31

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$74.1K

Combined PnL

-$914.59

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 61¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$45.4K

Total Shares83,807

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares63,380

Combined PnL$-3.9K

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 50.5¢	$40.7K	$43.6K	+$2.8K	48% 147-160 (307)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$14.2K	$10.6K	$-3.6K	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 49.7¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	-$34.72	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 48.2¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$192.31	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.2¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$399.83
└ No leg	Noavg 52.3¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$207.52
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 51¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	-$53.89	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$120	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$91.94	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 59.6¢	$722.88	$763.55	+$40.67	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$528.05	$476.05	-$52	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$500	$469.38	-$30.61	51% 3929-3842 (7771)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$500	$469.38	-$30.61	49% 3922-4114 (8036)
heyboy800CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$717.9	$462	-$18	61% 945-595 (1540)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 51¢	$310.7	$435	+$129.1	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 49.1¢	$379.47	$355.36	-$24.11	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 50.7¢	$156.06	$113.96	-$42.1	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$32.83	$30.82	-$2.01	50% 3870-3825 (7695)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$40,735.06

Value

$43.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

48%

147-160 (307)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$14,188.16

Value

$10.6K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,041.39

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$34.72

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,731.14

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$192.31

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

Both legs:

Yes$1,719.4448.2¢-$399.83

No$1,011.752.3¢+$207.52

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,861.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$53.89

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$120

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$1,003.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$91.94

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

SnakeBall

Invested

$722.88

Value

$763.55

PnL

+$40.67

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$528.05

Value

$476.05

PnL

-$52

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$469.38

PnL

-$30.61

Record

51%

3929-3842 (7771)

NotradecopyCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$469.38

PnL

-$30.61

Record

49%

3922-4114 (8036)

heyboy800CTR

Yes

Invested

$717.9

Value

$462

PnL

-$18

Record

61%

945-595 (1540)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$310.7

Value

$435

PnL

+$129.1

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$379.47

Value

$355.36

PnL

-$24.11

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$156.06

Value

$113.96

PnL

-$42.1

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.83

Value

$30.82

PnL

-$2.01

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 15 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.