Wigan Athletic FC vs. Bromley FC: O/U 4.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$2.3K
$255.8
48¢ → 82.5¢
+72% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 41¢ | $463.71 | $933.07 | +$469.36 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 40¢ | $397.68 | $634.91 | +$237.22 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 78¢ | $368.16 | $389.4 | +$21.24 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Underavg 60¢ | $744.92 | $217.27 | -$527.65 | 59% 2556-1783 (4339) |
 RN1 | Overavg 40¢ | $52.36 | $107.98 | +$55.63 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.25 | +$0 | 74% 1592-569 (2161) |
Invested
$463.71
Value
$933.07
PnL
+$469.36
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
Invested
$397.68
Value
$634.91
PnL
+$237.22
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$368.16
Value
$389.4
PnL
+$21.24
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$744.92
Value
$217.27
PnL
-$527.65
Record
59%
2556-1783 (4339)
RN1Invested
$52.36
Value
$107.98
PnL
+$55.63
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0
Record
74%
1592-569 (2161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.