Wigan Athletic FC vs. Bromley FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.3K
$257.57
67.7¢ → 100¢
+48% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 68¢ | $679.13 | $888.86 | +$209.73 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
OL olivereaCTR | Underavg 74¢ | $220.95 | $202.7 | -$18.24 | 58% 314-224 (538) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Underavg 32¢ | $115.34 | $180.22 | +$64.88 | 59% 2556-1783 (4339) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 39.5¢ | $3.95 | $4.7 | +$0.75 | 76% 4051-1277 (5328) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $4 | +$0.45 | 74% 1592-569 (2161) |
RN1Invested
$679.13
Value
$888.86
PnL
+$209.73
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$220.95
Value
$202.7
PnL
-$18.24
Record
58%
314-224 (538)
Invested
$115.34
Value
$180.22
PnL
+$64.88
Record
59%
2556-1783 (4339)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0.75
Record
76%
4051-1277 (5328)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$4
PnL
+$0.45
Record
74%
1592-569 (2161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.