Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Cambridge United FC: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $662 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$662.06
$11.31
79.2¢ → 100¢
+26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 20.2¢ | $144.48 | $329 | +$184.52 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 79.3¢ | $376.08 | $237 | -$139.08 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 78.7¢ | $117.68 | $74.8 | -$42.88 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $6 | $15 | +$9 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $6.5 | $6.25 | -$0.25 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
Invested
$144.48
Value
$329
PnL
+$184.52
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
Invested
$376.08
Value
$237
PnL
-$139.08
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
VeryLucky888Invested
$117.68
Value
$74.8
PnL
-$42.88
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
Invested
$6
Value
$15
PnL
+$9
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$6.5
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.