Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 47¢ · $492 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$492.03
$23.1
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $197.02 | $205.4 | +$8.39 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 49.7¢ | $120.14 | $127.17 | +$7.03 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $81.46 | $86.44 | +$4.99 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $31.93 | $29.98 | +$1.29 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 49.1¢ | $22.21 | $22.63 | +$0.42 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 45.2¢ | $19.41 | $20.4 | +$0.99 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
Invested
$197.02
Value
$205.4
PnL
+$8.39
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$120.14
Value
$127.17
PnL
+$7.03
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
poshposh<$100Invested
$81.46
Value
$86.44
PnL
+$4.99
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$31.93
Value
$29.98
PnL
+$1.29
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$22.21
Value
$22.63
PnL
+$0.42
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
RN1<$100Invested
$19.41
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$0.99
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.