Will Blackpool FC win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $246 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$246.48
$3.57
84.5¢ → 96¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 89.6¢ | $133.63 | $143.2 | +$9.57 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $70 | $84.24 | -$2.71 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $10.04 | $12.52 | +$2.48 | 51% 3435-3355 (6790) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $12.29 | $6.52 | -$5.77 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
Invested
$133.63
Value
$143.2
PnL
+$9.57
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$70
Value
$84.24
PnL
-$2.71
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$12.52
PnL
+$2.48
Record
51%
3435-3355 (6790)
Invested
$12.29
Value
$6.52
PnL
-$5.77
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.