Will Stevenage FC vs. Mansfield Town FC end in a draw?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 97¢ · $578 held · ends Nov 14

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

Total Value

$578.09

Combined PnL

$333.62

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 97¢

+173% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$569.86

Total Shares590

Combined PnL+$364.72

No4 traders

Total Value$8.24

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$31.1

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Yesavg 19.1¢	$91.08	$446.98	+$363.47	44% 2350-2960 (5310)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 95.6¢	$114.72	$115.86	+$1.14	53% 24124-21175 (45299)
LO looppau<$100	Yesavg 95.2¢	$6.92	$7.02	+$0.11	99% 12875-103 (12978)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 4.2¢	$24.32	$4.37	-$2.05	53% 12711-11312 (24023)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$2.51	$1.73	-$0.79	51% 358-345 (703)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$20.4	$1.44	-$18.96	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$10	$0.7	-$9.3	53% 2654-2333 (4987)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Yes

Invested

$91.08

Value

$446.98

PnL

+$363.47

Record

44%

2350-2960 (5310)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$114.72

Value

$115.86

PnL

+$1.14

Record

53%

24124-21175 (45299)

looppau<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.92

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$0.11

Record

99%

12875-103 (12978)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$24.32

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$2.05

Record

53%

12711-11312 (24023)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Invested

$2.51

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.79

Record

51%

358-345 (703)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$18.96

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$9.3

Record

53%

2654-2333 (4987)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.