Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Plymouth Argyle FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 28¢ · $574 held · ended Oct 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$573.69

Combined PnL

$4.45

Smart Money Entry

38.3¢ → 27.5¢

-28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$445.05

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL-$8.37

No3 traders

Total Value$128.63

Total Shares181

Combined PnL+$12.82

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 38.5¢	$388.06	$377.98	-$10.08	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 63.9¢	$99.79	$110.14	+$10.35	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$34.58	$34.58	+$0	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$30.78	$32.49	+$1.71	50% 3869-3825 (7694)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 62¢	$8.83	$9.65	+$0.82	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 59¢	$7.2	$8.84	+$1.65	49% 7958-8291 (16249)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$388.06

Value

$377.98

PnL

-$10.08

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$99.79

Value

$110.14

PnL

+$10.35

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.58

Value

$34.58

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.78

Value

$32.49

PnL

+$1.71

Record

50%

3869-3825 (7694)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$8.83

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$0.82

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$8.84

PnL

+$1.65

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.