Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.6K
-$0.43
51.1¢ → 52¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 51¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$0 | 54% 55318-47360 (102678) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51.4¢ | $129.65 | $102.01 | +$0.05 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $53.56 | $52.53 | -$0.52 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $1.66 | $1.7 | +$0.03 | 51% 1630-1570 (3200) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.