Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 81¢ · $534 held · ended Oct 27

Yes81¢No19¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$534.21

Combined PnL

$242.75

Smart Money Entry

29.8¢ → 80.5¢

+170% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$228.63

Total Shares833

Combined PnL+$177.25

No5 traders

Total Value$305.58

Total Shares418

Combined PnL+$65.51

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rocky31	Yesavg 29¢	$30.59	$216.86	+$184.97	73% 1441-531 (1972)
RN1CTR	Noavg 41.1¢	$82.74	$147.07	+$64.33	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 72.4¢	$123.86	$124.83	+$0.97	58% 27876-20518 (48394)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$27	$27.56	+$0.56	63% 1048-604 (1652)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 44.7¢	$19.5	$11.77	-$7.72	50% 24148-23764 (47912)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$5.71	$4.65	-$1.06	54% 2639-2268 (4907)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$0.76	$1.46	+$0.7	58% 1604-1185 (2789)

Rocky31

Yes

Invested

$30.59

Value

$216.86

PnL

+$184.97

Record

73%

1441-531 (1972)

RN1CTR

Invested

$82.74

Value

$147.07

PnL

+$64.33

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$123.86

Value

$124.83

PnL

+$0.97

Record

58%

27876-20518 (48394)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$27.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

63%

1048-604 (1652)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.5

Value

$11.77

PnL

-$7.72

Record

50%

24148-23764 (47912)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$1.06

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Invested

$0.76

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$0.7

Record

58%

1604-1185 (2789)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.