Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Milton Keynes Dons FC win on 2026-09-26?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 11¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 75%
$1.2K
-$285.24
38.2¢ → 10.9¢
-71% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 38¢ | $550.36 | $383.5 | -$166.86 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 38.3¢ | $523.77 | $362.72 | -$161.05 | 50% 24148-23764 (47912) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 61¢ | $289.1 | $348.34 | +$59.24 | 49% 18442-18863 (37305) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $30 | $36.75 | +$6.75 | 73% 1441-531 (1972) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 38.8¢ | $50.32 | $34.36 | -$15.96 | 58% 40458-29241 (69699) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $19.06 | $13.29 | -$5.77 | 58% 1604-1185 (2789) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $4.76 | $3.6 | -$1.16 | 59% 44322-30683 (75005) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $1.23 | $0.8 | -$0.43 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
RN1CTRInvested
$550.36
Value
$383.5
PnL
-$166.86
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$523.77
Value
$362.72
PnL
-$161.05
Record
50%
24148-23764 (47912)
Invested
$289.1
Value
$348.34
PnL
+$59.24
Record
49%
18442-18863 (37305)
Invested
$30
Value
$36.75
PnL
+$6.75
Record
73%
1441-531 (1972)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$50.32
Value
$34.36
PnL
-$15.96
Record
58%
40458-29241 (69699)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$19.06
Value
$13.29
PnL
-$5.77
Record
58%
1604-1185 (2789)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$1.16
Record
59%
44322-30683 (75005)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.