Will Mansfield Town FC win on 2026-10-31?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 89¢ · $362 held · ended Oct 31

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$362.43

Combined PnL

$50.41

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 88.5¢

+55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$254.89

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$63.08

Yes3 traders

Total Value$107.54

Total Shares231

Combined PnL-$12.67

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 52.4¢	$92.43	$151.58	+$59.14	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$94.92	$91.4	-$4.39	55% 1743-1435 (3178)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 83¢	$54.94	$55.36	+$0.42	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Noavg 47¢	$36.99	$37.39	+$1.18	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.75	$10.75	-$0.1	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
RN1<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.41	$7.71	+$2.3	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$13.56	$5.39	-$8.17	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 48¢	$2.88	$2.85	+$0.03	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$92.43

Value

$151.58

PnL

+$59.14

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.92

Value

$91.4

PnL

-$4.39

Record

55%

1743-1435 (3178)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$54.94

Value

$55.36

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Invested

$36.99

Value

$37.39

PnL

+$1.18

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

RN1<$100

Invested

$5.41

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$2.3

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.56

Value

$5.39

PnL

-$8.17

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.