Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-10-31?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 50¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$2.5K
$350.6
40.6¢ → 50¢
+23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 41¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$230.48 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 41¢ | $314.76 | $384 | +$69.24 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 39¢ | $318.44 | $379.72 | +$61.28 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 57¢ | $357.95 | $345.39 | -$12.56 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $3.56 | $3.98 | +$0.42 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.1 | $2.84 | +$1.74 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 54% 6279-5320 (11599) |
Invested
$1,188.56
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$230.48
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$314.76
Value
$384
PnL
+$69.24
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
VeryLucky888Invested
$318.44
Value
$379.72
PnL
+$61.28
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
RN1Invested
$357.95
Value
$345.39
PnL
-$12.56
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$3.56
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.42
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$2.84
PnL
+$1.74
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
6279-5320 (11599)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.