Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 59¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$268.39

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 59¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,689

Combined PnL-$272.31

Yes5 traders

Total Value$384.91

Total Shares931

Combined PnL+$3.91

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 59.8¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$309.96	48% 147-160 (307)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 40.7¢	$269.76	$200	+$37.7	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 64¢	$137.49	$144.97	+$7.48	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 40.3¢	$150.63	$112.2	-$38.43	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$36.65	$58.12	+$21.47	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
RN1<$100	Noavg 61¢	$54.9	$54.45	-$0.45	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$50.02	$54.29	+$4.27	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 51¢	$21.49	$28.22	+$6.74	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$10.97	$10.55	-$0.42	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$7.08	$7.87	+$0.8	62% 1149-698 (1847)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.38	$4.8	+$2.42	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$4,333.23

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$309.96

Record

48%

147-160 (307)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$269.76

Value

$200

PnL

+$37.7

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$137.49

Value

$144.97

PnL

+$7.48

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$150.63

Value

$112.2

PnL

-$38.43

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$36.65

Value

$58.12

PnL

+$21.47

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

RN1<$100

Invested

$54.9

Value

$54.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.02

Value

$54.29

PnL

+$4.27

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$21.49

Value

$28.22

PnL

+$6.74

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.97

Value

$10.55

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.08

Value

$7.87

PnL

+$0.8

Record

62%

1149-698 (1847)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.