Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-10-28?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$2.1K
$112.42
56.6¢ → 65.5¢
+16% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$110.59 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 50¢ | $526.44 | $536.97 | +$10.53 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $140.99 | $131.27 | -$9.72 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $55 | $54 | -$1.5 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 49.8¢ | $17.98 | $21.09 | +$3.12 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $10.64 | $10.07 | -$0.57 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $6.65 | +$0.95 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.45 | $5 | -$0.67 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $4.3 | $4 | -$0.3 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
RN1Invested
$1,243.58
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$110.59
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Invested
$526.44
Value
$536.97
PnL
+$10.53
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Invested
$140.99
Value
$131.27
PnL
-$9.72
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
us391<$100Invested
$55
Value
$54
PnL
-$1.5
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.98
Value
$21.09
PnL
+$3.12
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
Invested
$10.64
Value
$10.07
PnL
-$0.57
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.95
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.67
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.