Zamalek SC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: O/U 1.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $849 held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$848.82

Combined PnL

-$502.23

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 100¢

+66% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$839.37

Total Shares1,255

Combined PnL+$82.58

Under3 traders

Total Value$9.45

Total Shares1,500

Combined PnL-$584.81

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 59.5¢	$716.8	$789.4	+$72.6	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 80¢	$40	$49.98	+$9.98	47% 4449-4924 (9373)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$8.58	$6.29	-$2.28	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 34.3¢	$2.4	$2.42	+$0.01	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 39.6¢	$583.28	$0.74	-$582.54	59% 44632-31032 (75664)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$716.8

Value

$789.4

PnL

+$72.6

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$40

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$9.98

Record

47%

4449-4924 (9373)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.58

Value

$6.29

PnL

-$2.28

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$583.28

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$582.54

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.