Zamalek SC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: O/U 0.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.0K
-$43.78
76.1¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 76¢ | $778 | $1.0K | +$240.56 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 11.1¢ | $34.3 | $15.35 | +$7.41 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $8.8 | $8.45 | -$0.35 | 47% 2056-2353 (4409) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 23.4¢ | $270.37 | $0.58 | -$269.79 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $21.65 | $0.04 | -$21.61 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
Invested
$778
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$240.56
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$34.3
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$7.41
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$8.45
PnL
-$0.35
Record
47%
2056-2353 (4409)
Invested
$270.37
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$269.79
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$21.65
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$21.61
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.