Spread: Zamalek SC (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold El Mokawloon El Arab SC (33%) · El Mokawloon El Arab SC at 79¢ · $944 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
El Mokawloon El Arab SC
6
El Mokawloon El Arab SC 33%
$944.21
$32.66
80.5¢ → 79¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralEl Mokawloon El Arab SC at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | El Mokawloon El Arab SCavg 80.5¢ | $674.03 | $665.85 | -$8.18 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Zamalek SCavg 19.4¢ | $136.81 | $172.48 | +$35.67 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Zamalek SCavg 23¢ | $69 | $73.5 | +$4.5 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Zamalek SCavg 20¢ | $26.71 | $27.38 | +$0.67 | 50% 32771-32328 (65099) |
 HRTrading<$100 | El Mokawloon El Arab SCavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $3.78 | -$0.08 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Zamalek SCavg 23¢ | $1.15 | $1.23 | +$0.08 | 47% 2038-2342 (4380) |
Invested
$674.03
Value
$665.85
PnL
-$8.18
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$136.81
Value
$172.48
PnL
+$35.67
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$69
Value
$73.5
PnL
+$4.5
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$26.71
Value
$27.38
PnL
+$0.67
Record
50%
32771-32328 (65099)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0.08
Record
47%
2038-2342 (4380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.